Mohun Bagan vs Mohammedan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Mohun Bagan and 0.91 for Mohammedan, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Mohun Bagan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mohun Bagan win

64.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.07 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Mohun Bagan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Mohun Bagan and 0.91 for Mohammedan, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 64% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Mohun Bagan win64%

Draw20%

Mohammedan win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–010.9%
1–010.6%
2–19.9%
1–19.6%
3–07.5%

Recent form

Mohun Bagan

2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Coal India · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs East Bengal · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T09:30:00.000Z · A vs BSS Sporting · 3-0 (W)

Mohammedan

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Calcutta Premier Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	East Bengal	14	9	5	0	27	32
2	Bhawanipore	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Mohun Bagan	14	9	3	2	25	30
4	Mohammedan	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	United	14	6	5	3	15	23
6	Coal India	14	6	4	4	-3	22
7	Peerless	11	6	2	3	11	20
8	Aryan	11	5	4	2	12	19
9	Calcutta Customs	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Calcutta Police	11	5	3	3	2	18
11	Police	11	4	5	2	2	17
12	United Kolkata	11	4	4	3	6	16
13	Measurers	11	3	6	2	4	15
14	Kalighat	11	4	2	5	5	14
15	Railway	11	4	2	5	0	14
16	Kidderpore	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	BSS Sporting	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Patha Chakra	11	3	1	7	-20	10
19	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	2	3	6	-9	9
20	Rainbow	11	2	1	8	-18	7
21	Wari	11	1	4	6	-19	7
22	George Telegraph	11	2	1	8	-26	7
23	Kalighat Club	11	0	3	8	-17	3
24	Bidhannagar	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mohun Bagan win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.