· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
MOIK vs Mingəçevir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for MOIK and 0.90 for Mingəçevir, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives MOIK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MOIK win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MOIK home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mingəçevir away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MOIK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for MOIK and 0.90 for Mingəçevir, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
MOIK
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mingəçevir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Xankəndi FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Şimal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şahdağ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Difai Ağsu · 4-0 (W)
Mingəçevir
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs MOIK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cəbrayıl · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Səbail · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MOIK win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.