Campo de Futbol Mojados · Analysis updated 05:26 UTC
Mojados vs Cristo Atlético Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Mojados and 1.45 for Cristo Atlético, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Cristo Atlético the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cristo Atlético win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mojados home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cristo Atlético away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cristo Atlético to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 21% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Mojados and 1.45 for Cristo Atlético, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Mojados
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cristo Atlético · 1-2 (L)
Cristo Atlético
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs La Virgen del Camino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mansillés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Arandina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Almazán | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Turégano | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Calasanz de Soria | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cristo Atlético win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.