Mokpo City vs Gangneung City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mokpo City and 1.05 for Gangneung City, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Mokpo City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mokpo City home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mokpo City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Mokpo City and 1.05 for Gangneung City, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Mokpo City win38%

Draw29%

Gangneung City win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.8%
0–111.5%
0–011.0%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Mokpo City

2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)

Gangneung City

2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongju HNP · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Siheung Citizen	24	17	4	3	16	55
2	Pocheon	24	14	7	3	21	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	12	5	7	14	41
4	Busan Transportation	24	11	7	6	12	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	24	9	9	6	4	36
6	Dangjin Citizen	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	Chuncheon	24	9	6	9	5	33
8	Gangneung City	24	8	6	10	-10	30
9	Changwon City	24	7	8	9	-4	29
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	8	4	12	-3	28
11	Yeoju Sejong	24	7	7	10	-4	28
12	Mokpo City	24	5	10	9	-14	25
13	Yangpyeong	24	4	8	12	-16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	1	7	16	-29	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.