· Analysis updated 00:43 UTC
Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mold Alexandra and 1.18 for Holyhead Hotspur, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Mold Alexandra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Mold Alexandra or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Mold Alexandra home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holyhead Hotspur away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Recent form
Mold Alexandra
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holyhead Hotspur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Guilsfield · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Caersws · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Airbus UK · 3-4 (L)
Holyhead Hotspur
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mold Alexandra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brickfield Rangers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruthin Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 1-0 Holyhead Hotspur (FAW Championship)
- 2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 1-0 Holyhead Hotspur (FAW Championship)
- 2025-08-16T13:30:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 1-1 Holyhead Hotspur (FAW Championship)
- 2023-03-18T14:30:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 3-1 Holyhead Hotspur (FAW Championship)
- 2022-10-08T13:30:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 3-1 Holyhead Hotspur (Welsh Cup)
- 2022-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · Mold Alexandra 2-2 Holyhead Hotspur (FAW Championship)
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Newport City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Aberystwyth Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | llanelli AFC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Porthmadog | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brickfield Rangers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Guilsfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Rhyl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Mold Alexandra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Ruthin Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.