· Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Molde II vs Melhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Molde II and 2.70 for Melhus, a combined total of 5.23. That distribution gives Melhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 86% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 2.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Molde II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Melhus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 38% / 18% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Molde II and 2.70 for Melhus, a combined 5.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.6%
- 3–25.3%
- 1–25.0%
- 3–34.7%
Recent form
Molde II
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Strindheim · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs NTNUI · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spjelkavik · 1-3 (L)
Melhus
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NTNUI · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 55 |
| 2 | Volda | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 55 |
| 3 | Melhus | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 42 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Molde II | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosenborg II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 34 |
| 7 | Nardo | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 33 |
| 8 | Herd | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Spjelkavik | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -11 | 29 |
| 10 | NTNUI | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -16 | 29 |
| 11 | Ranheim II | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 26 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Aalesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 25 |
| 14 | Orkla | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 86% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.