Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Molde and 1.38 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Molde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Molde win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Molde home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fredrikstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Molde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Molde and 1.38 for Fredrikstad, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Molde win53%

Draw22%

Fredrikstad win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–19.3%
2–06.8%
1–06.8%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Molde

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ham-Kam · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 2-0 (W)

Fredrikstad

2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold IF · 7-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	22	17	2	3	36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	17	2	3	36	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	11	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	-1	33
7	Brann	22	9	2	11	5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	-7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	7	7	8	-3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	8	4	10	-9	28
11	Ham-Kam	22	7	5	10	-13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	-6	24
13	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	-10	23
14	Aalesund	22	4	9	9	-15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	5	4	13	-21	19
16	Start	22	4	4	14	-24	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Molde win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.