Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Molde and 1.23 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Molde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Molde home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Molde win44%

Draw25%

Sarpsborg 08 FF win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.7%
2–19.1%
0–17.8%
2–07.4%

Recent form

Molde

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ham-Kam · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 2-0 (W)

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Follo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Molde 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Molde 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2025-11-30T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2025-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Molde 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2024-11-10T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2024-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · Molde 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2024-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 4-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF (NM Cupen)
2023-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2023-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 5-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF (Eliteserien)
2023-07-12T16:00:00.000Z · Molde 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF (NM Cupen)

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	22	17	2	3	36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	17	2	3	36	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	11	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	-1	33
7	Brann	22	9	2	11	5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	-7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	7	7	8	-3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	8	4	10	-9	28
11	Ham-Kam	22	7	5	10	-13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	-6	24
13	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	-10	23
14	Aalesund	22	4	9	9	-15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	5	4	13	-21	19
16	Start	22	4	4	14	-24	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.