Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Molinos El Pirata and 1.35 for U. San Martin, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Molinos El Pirata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Molinos El Pirata home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
U. San Martin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Molinos El Pirata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Molinos El Pirata and 1.35 for U. San Martin, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Molinos El Pirata win37%

Draw26%

U. San Martin win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.1%
1–09.1%
1–28.3%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Molinos El Pirata

2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-23T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Academia Cantolao · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Comercio · 1-2 (L)

U. San Martin

2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Cesar Vallejo · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	-43	0
1	Bentín Tacna Heroica	16	8	5	3	9	29
2	Comerciantes	16	6	8	2	9	26
3	Minas	16	6	7	3	13	25
4	Sport Huancayo 2	16	7	4	5	9	25
5	Alianza Universidad	16	5	6	5	0	21
6	Santos	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Ayacucho FC	16	5	4	7	-2	19
8	Estudiantil CNI	16	4	5	7	4	17
9	Deportivo Binacional	16	2	4	10	-39	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.