· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Mollerussa vs Grama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Mollerussa and 1.16 for Grama, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Grama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.3% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mollerussa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grama away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 25% / 31% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Mollerussa and 1.16 for Grama, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.6%
- 0–014.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–29.6%
Recent form
Mollerussa
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cornellà · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 1-0 (W)
Grama
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilanova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs San Cristóbal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vilanova | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.