Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Ostrovets FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and 1.20 for Ostrovets FC, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ostrovets FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win50%

Draw24%

Ostrovets FC win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.6%
1–09.3%
2–08.0%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lida · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Niva · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Slutsk · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostrovets FC · 3-2 (W)

Ostrovets FC

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3-2 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3-2 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2025-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0-1 Ostrovets FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-11-23T11:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2-0 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2024-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-1 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2023-09-03T10:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-2 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-1 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2022-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0-0 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2022-04-09T12:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0-3 Ostrovets FC (1. Division)
2020-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3-2 Ostrovets FC (2. Division)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	29	19	4	6	41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	17	5	7	26	56
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	7	8	13	-8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	6	5	18	-37	23
17	BATE II	28	5	7	16	-26	22
18	Gomel II	29	5	6	18	-23	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.