Mombasa Elite vs 3K Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mombasa Elite and 1.12 for 3K, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Mombasa Elite the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Mombasa Elite to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Mombasa Elite and 1.12 for 3K, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 67% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Mombasa Elite win39%

Draw28%

3K win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.7%
0–110.6%
0–09.4%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Mombasa Elite

2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luanda Villa · 0-1 (L)

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Migori Youth · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Talanta · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.