· Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
Mombasa Elite vs APS Bomet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.73 for APS Bomet, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Mombasa Elite the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mombasa Elite home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
APS Bomet away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 36% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.73 for APS Bomet, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–017.3%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Mombasa Elite
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
APS Bomet
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mathare United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Leopards · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandari · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Mombasa Elite 0-0 APS Bomet (Super League)
- 2024-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Mombasa Elite 0-2 APS Bomet (Super League)
- 2022-05-27T00:00:00.000Z · Mombasa Elite 1-4 APS Bomet (Super League)
- 2022-03-28T00:00:00.000Z · Mombasa Elite 0-1 APS Bomet (Super League)
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.