Mombasa Elite vs Nzoia Sugar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.90 for Nzoia Sugar, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Mombasa Elite the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mombasa Elite win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mombasa Elite home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Nzoia Sugar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mombasa Elite to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.90 for Nzoia Sugar, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mombasa Elite win45%

Draw29%

Nzoia Sugar win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.5%
1–113.0%
0–011.4%
0–110.2%
2–09.2%

Recent form

Mombasa Elite

2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)

Nzoia Sugar

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortune Sacco · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mombasa Elite win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.