· Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Mombasa Elite vs Shabana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.88 for Shabana, a combined total of 1.54. That distribution gives Shabana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.4% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mombasa Elite home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Shabana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 26% / 36% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Mombasa Elite and 0.88 for Shabana, a combined 1.54 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.4%
- 0–118.9%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Mombasa Elite
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
Shabana
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sofapaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.