Monaco vs Angers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Monaco and 0.95 for Angers, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monaco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Monaco and 0.95 for Angers, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Monaco win44%

Draw28%

Angers win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–113.1%
0–010.8%
0–110.3%
2–08.8%

Recent form

Monaco

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)

Angers

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
2025-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
2025-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
2024-11-01T18:00:00.000Z · Monaco 0-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
2023-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
2022-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
2022-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
2021-12-01T18:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
2021-04-25T15:05:00.000Z · Monaco 1-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
2021-01-09T20:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-0 Angers (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.