Stade Louis II · Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Monaco vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Monaco and 0.65 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Monaco win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monaco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estac Troyes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.8%
Recent form
Monaco
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
Estac Troyes
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-2 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-4 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2021-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2018-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2017-12-09T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-2 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2016-02-20T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2015-12-19T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 0-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2012-10-30T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-2 Estac Troyes (Coupe de la Ligue)
- 2012-05-11T18:30:00.000Z · Monaco 0-2 Estac Troyes (Ligue 2)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monaco win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.