Monaco vs Lens Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Monaco and 1.13 for Lens, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Monaco win

53.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monaco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lens away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Monaco win54%

Draw23%

Lens win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.8%
1–09.6%
2–08.7%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Monaco

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)

Lens

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-21T16:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-2 Lens (Ligue 1)
2025-11-08T20:05:00.000Z · Monaco 1-4 Lens (Ligue 1)
2025-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 0-4 Lens (Ligue 1)
2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-1 Lens (Ligue 1)
2024-02-25T12:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-2 Lens (Ligue 1)
2024-01-07T13:30:00.000Z · Monaco 2-2 Lens (Coupe de France)
2023-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 3-0 Lens (Ligue 1)
2023-04-22T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 0-3 Lens (Ligue 1)
2022-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-4 Lens (Ligue 1)
2022-05-21T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-2 Lens (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Monaco win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.