· Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Monaco vs Pisa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Monaco and 1.10 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monaco win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monaco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Monaco and 1.10 for Pisa, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Monaco
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
Pisa
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Entella · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monaco win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.