· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Monagas II vs Mineros de Guyana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Monagas II and 0.82 for Mineros de Guyana, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Monagas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas II win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monagas II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mineros de Guyana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Monagas II
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Avila FC · 3-0 (W)
Mineros de Guyana
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · Monagas II 2-1 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-09T19:30:00.000Z · Monagas II 2-2 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2026-03-14T20:00:00.000Z · Monagas II 2-1 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · Monagas II 2-1 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2025-08-02T19:30:00.000Z · Monagas II 1-1 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2025-06-07T20:00:00.000Z · Monagas II 1-2 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
- 2025-04-20T23:30:00.000Z · Monagas II 0-4 Mineros de Guyana (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 31 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 69 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 47 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 33 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas II win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.