· Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Monagas SC vs Bolívar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Monagas SC and 0.88 for Bolívar, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
2.80 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monagas SC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bolívar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.80 goals for Monagas SC and 0.88 for Bolívar, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 3–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Bolívar
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Urena SC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Trujillanos FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Deportivo Lara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.