· Analysis updated 11:49 UTC
Monagas SC vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.45 expected goals for Monagas SC and 0.63 for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
88.5% probability
Expected goals
3.45 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monagas SC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.45 goals for Monagas SC and 0.63 for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 4–010.0%
- 3–17.3%
- 5–06.9%
Recent form
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 88.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.