· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Monagas SC vs Mineros de Guyana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Monagas SC and 1.01 for Mineros de Guyana, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monagas SC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mineros de Guyana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Monagas SC and 1.01 for Mineros de Guyana, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 67.4% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 45.5% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.2% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.9% | 76.9% | 1.30 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 43.4% | 44.4% | 2.25 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.0% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 46.7% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.85 | 32.6% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.13 | 80.7% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Mineros de Guyana
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.