Monumental de Maturín · Referee R. Cueva · Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Monagas SC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Monagas SC and 0.88 for Zamora FC, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monagas SC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Monagas SC and 0.88 for Zamora FC, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.