Monarcas vs Irapuato Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Monarcas and 1.28 for Irapuato, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Monarcas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Monarcas win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monarcas home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irapuato away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monarcas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Monarcas and 1.28 for Irapuato, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Monarcas win50%

Draw23%

Irapuato win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.5%
1–08.3%
2–07.5%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Monarcas

2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos Uat · 1-3 (L)

Irapuato

2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Zacatepec 1948 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Lobos ULMX · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	14	8	3	3	15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	8	3	3	12	27
3	Monarcas	14	8	2	4	9	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	12	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	6	24
6	Cancún	14	6	4	4	8	22
7	Durango	14	6	3	5	4	21
8	Tlaxcala	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	-11	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	1	18
11	Tapatío	14	5	2	7	-3	17
12	Correcaminos Uat	14	4	4	6	-3	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	-6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	2	1	11	-31	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Monarcas win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.