Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Monarcas and 2.00 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Leones Negros UDG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monarcas home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones Negros UDG away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leones Negros UDG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Monarcas and 2.00 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Monarcas win35%

Draw21%

Leones Negros UDG win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.1%
1–28.1%
2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–35.4%

Recent form

Monarcas

2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos Uat · 1-3 (L)

Leones Negros UDG

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorados · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	7	3	3	10	24
3	Monarcas	13	7	2	4	8	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	7	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Durango	13	6	3	4	5	21
7	Cancún	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	3	18
9	Tapatío	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	4	3	6	-6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
16	Tepatitlán	13	2	1	10	-27	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.