Stryda Park · Analysis updated 18:29 UTC
Monaro Panthers vs Belconnen United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.29 expected goals for Monaro Panthers and 0.92 for Belconnen United, a combined total of 5.20. That distribution gives Monaro Panthers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monaro Panthers win
90.3% probability
Expected goals
4.29 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monaro Panthers home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belconnen United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–07.7%
- 3–07.2%
- 4–17.1%
- 5–06.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Monaro Panthers
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra White Eagles · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Canberra FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T07:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-1 (D)
Belconnen United
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Olympic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T07:45:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 7-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-05-16T06:30:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 3-1 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2022-07-30T07:45:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 2-2 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 6-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2022-04-02T04:00:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 3-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-08-07T07:30:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 1-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-06-19T07:30:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 2-2 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-04-24T05:00:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 1-2 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2020-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 0-4 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2019-08-10T07:30:00.000Z · Monaro Panthers 1-4 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monaro Panthers win, at 90.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.