Stadio Comunale Monastir · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Monastir vs Nocerina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Monastir and 1.15 for Nocerina, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Monastir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monastir home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nocerina away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monastir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Monastir and 1.15 for Nocerina, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Monastir
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Latte Dolce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Budoni · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aranova · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzio · 1-3 (L)
Nocerina
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · Monastir 1-0 Nocerina (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · Monastir 2-2 Nocerina (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Aranova | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Trastevere | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 | Paganese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Unipomezia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ossese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Albalonga | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Anzio | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Città di Anagni | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Venafro | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Budoni | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.