Estádio da Torrinha · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Moncarapachense vs Comércio Indústria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Moncarapachense and 1.08 for Comércio Indústria, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Moncarapachense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moncarapachense home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Comércio Indústria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moncarapachense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Moncarapachense and 1.08 for Comércio Indústria, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Moncarapachense
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense B · 3-0 (W)
Comércio Indústria
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.