Estádio da Torrinha · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Moncarapachense vs Juventude Évora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Moncarapachense and 1.30 for Juventude Évora, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Moncarapachense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moncarapachense home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Juventude Évora away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moncarapachense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Moncarapachense and 1.30 for Juventude Évora, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Moncarapachense
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense B · 3-0 (W)
Juventude Évora
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aljustrelense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portel · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.