· Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Mongolia U17 vs Thailand U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Mongolia U17 and 2.11 for Thailand U17, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Thailand U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thailand U17 win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mongolia U17 home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Thailand U17 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Mongolia U17 and 2.11 for Thailand U17, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Mongolia U17
- 2025-11-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Turkmenistan U17 · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-11-26T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait U17 · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-11-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Maldives U17 · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-27T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Nepal U17 · 1-0 (W)
Thailand U17
- 2026-05-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar U17 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Turkmenistan U17 · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thailand U17 win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.