Monheim vs Holzheimer SG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Monheim and 1.14 for Holzheimer SG, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Monheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Monheim win

78.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.33 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monheim home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holzheimer SG away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.33 goals for Monheim and 1.14 for Holzheimer SG, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Monheim win79%

Draw12%

Holzheimer SG win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

3–18.0%
2–17.2%
3–07.0%
4–16.7%
2–06.3%

Recent form

Monheim

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scherpenberg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Baumberg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 3-3 (D)

Holzheimer SG

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wuppertaler SV · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Ratingen · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	7	0	2	10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	9	5	2	2	10	17
4	BW Dingden	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	SF Baumberg	9	4	3	2	2	15
6	Solingen-Wald	9	5	0	4	-3	15
7	SC St. Tönis	9	4	2	3	4	14
8	Germania Ratingen	9	3	5	1	3	14
9	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	4	2	3	0	14
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	4	1	4	9	13
11	Sonsbeck	9	3	4	2	2	13
12	Monheim	9	3	3	3	4	12
13	Wuppertaler SV	9	3	1	5	4	10
14	Scherpenberg	9	2	2	5	-10	8
15	SW Essen	9	1	3	5	-10	6
16	Büderich	9	1	3	5	-14	6
17	Holzheimer SG	9	1	1	7	-21	4
18	Meerbusch	9	0	3	6	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Monheim win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.