· Analysis updated 11:46 UTC
Mons Calpe vs Hound Dogs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Mons Calpe and 0.70 for Hound Dogs, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Mons Calpe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mons Calpe win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mons Calpe home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hound Dogs away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mons Calpe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Mons Calpe and 0.70 for Hound Dogs, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 3–010.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Mons Calpe
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St Joseph S Fc · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-4 (L)
Hound Dogs
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa Point · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Magpies · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs College 1975 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mons Calpe win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.