· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Mons Calpe vs Magpies Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Mons Calpe and 1.46 for Magpies, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Magpies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mons Calpe home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magpies away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magpies to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Mons Calpe and 1.46 for Magpies, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Mons Calpe
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St Joseph S Fc · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-4 (L)
Magpies
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lynx · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.