· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Monsoon vs Brasil Farroupilha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Monsoon and 0.98 for Brasil Farroupilha, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Monsoon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brasil Farroupilha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monsoon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Monsoon and 0.98 for Brasil Farroupilha, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Monsoon
Brasil Farroupilha
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monsoon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gramadense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gramadense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RS · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.