· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Montalegre vs Maria da Fonte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Montalegre and 0.61 for Maria da Fonte, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Montalegre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Montalegre win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montalegre home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maria da Fonte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montalegre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Montalegre and 0.61 for Maria da Fonte, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–014.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Montalegre
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maia Lidador · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga B · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte da Barca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Celoricense · 0-0 (D)
Maria da Fonte
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maia Lidador · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga B · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Nogueirense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaves II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | SC Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bragança | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Vila Meã | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Brito | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montalegre win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.