· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Montana vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Montana and 1.41 for Spartak Pleven, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Montana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montana home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Pleven away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Montana and 1.41 for Spartak Pleven, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Montana
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-4 (L)
Spartak Pleven
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Marek · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.