Ogosta Stadium · Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Montana vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Montana and 1.70 for Spartak Pleven, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Montana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montana home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Pleven away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Montana and 1.70 for Spartak Pleven, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
Montana
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-4 (L)
Spartak Pleven
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Krumovgrad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.