Ogosta Stadium · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Montana vs Vihren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Montana and 2.48 for Vihren, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Vihren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vihren win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montana home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vihren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Montana and 2.48 for Vihren, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Montana
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-4 (L)
Vihren
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vihren win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.