Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris · Analysis updated 04:48 UTC
Montañesa vs Lleida Esportiu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Montañesa and 0.58 for Lleida Esportiu, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Montañesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montañesa win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montañesa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lleida Esportiu away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montañesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 28% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Montañesa and 0.58 for Lleida Esportiu, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Montañesa
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinenc · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa II · 0-1 (L)
Lleida Esportiu
- 2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Badalona | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Cornellà | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tona | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Peralada | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montañesa win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.