· Analysis updated 17:40 UTC
Montañesa vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Montañesa and 0.89 for San Juan Atletico de Montcada, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Montañesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montañesa win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montañesa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montañesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Montañesa and 0.89 for San Juan Atletico de Montcada, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Montañesa
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinenc · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa II · 0-1 (L)
San Juan Atletico de Montcada
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Cristóbal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montañesa win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.