ND Soft Stadium Yamagata · Analysis updated 00:46 UTC
Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.09 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montedio Yamagata home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.09 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–011.7%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Montedio Yamagata
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Oita Trinita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 0-1 (L)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.