Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.75 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined total of 1.66. That distribution gives Montedio Yamagata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.91 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Montedio Yamagata home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokushima Vortis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montedio Yamagata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 34% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.75 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined 1.66 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Montedio Yamagata win37%

Draw34%

Tokushima Vortis win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals49%

Over 2.5 goals23%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–019.0%
1–017.3%
0–114.2%
1–113.0%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Montedio Yamagata

2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Oita Trinita · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 0-1 (L)

Tokushima Vortis

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	4	7	1	2	19
9	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
12	Iwaki	12	5	1	6	1	16
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
15	Jubilo Iwata	12	4	3	5	-1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	12	3	3	6	-1	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.