Wespow Park · Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Montego Bay United vs Dunbeholden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Montego Bay United and 0.48 for Dunbeholden, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Montego Bay United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montego Bay United win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montego Bay United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunbeholden away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 2–016.7%
- 3–010.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Montego Bay United
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Arnett Gardens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T22:05:00.000Z · A vs Racing United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Tru-Juice · 0-0 (D)
Dunbeholden
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Molynes United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Montego Bay United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnett Gardens · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 1-0 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2026-03-18T20:30:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 4-3 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2026-01-11T20:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 1-0 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2025-09-07T20:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 2-1 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T23:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 4-0 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2025-02-02T20:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 0-2 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2024-11-10T22:30:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 2-1 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2024-03-20T20:30:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 2-0 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2023-12-17T20:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 1-2 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
- 2023-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · Montego Bay United 0-4 Dunbeholden (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 9 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montego Bay United win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.