Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Monterey Bay and 1.58 for Phoenix Rising, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Phoenix Rising the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monterey Bay home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Phoenix Rising away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Monterey Bay win30%

Draw25%

Phoenix Rising win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–19.3%
1–29.2%
1–07.4%
0–27.4%

Recent form

Monterey Bay

2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Lexington · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleston Battery · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Phoenix Rising · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sacramento Republic · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Rhode Island · 1-3 (L)

Phoenix Rising

2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Lexington · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Vegas Lights · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs New Mexico United · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 1-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2026-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 2-3 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2025-05-18T02:00:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 0-2 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2025-03-30T02:00:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 3-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2024-10-05T02:30:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 2-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2024-03-17T02:00:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 1-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2023-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 0-2 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2023-04-16T02:30:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 1-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2022-09-22T02:30:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 3-3 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
2022-03-13T02:30:00.000Z · Monterey Bay 2-4 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	18	7	5	26	61
2	Charleston Battery	30	16	5	9	21	53
3	Detroit City	30	14	9	7	13	51
4	Louisville City	30	13	8	9	8	47
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	13	6	11	3	45
6	Hartford Athletic	30	10	13	7	2	43
7	Rhode Island	30	12	6	12	9	42
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	-10	36
9	Indy Eleven	30	9	7	14	-6	34
10	Loudoun United	30	6	13	11	-10	31
11	Birmingham Legion	30	6	12	12	-6	30
12	Brooklyn	30	5	6	19	-29	21
13	Sporting JAX	30	3	5	22	-46	14
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	11	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	14	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	15	5	10	10	50
4	Lexington	30	14	6	10	18	48
5	Colorado Springs	30	13	8	9	6	47
6	San Antonio	30	11	12	7	2	45
7	FC Tulsa	30	11	10	9	3	43
8	Phoenix Rising	30	10	10	10	-1	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	-10	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	-1	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	10	6	14	-7	36
12	Monterey Bay	30	6	6	18	-20	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.