· Analysis updated 21:51 UTC
Monterrey U21 vs Club Tijuana U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Monterrey U21 and 1.53 for Club Tijuana U21, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Monterrey U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Monterrey U21 win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monterrey U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monterrey U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Monterrey U21 and 1.53 for Club Tijuana U21, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Monterrey U21
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 1-2 (L)
Club Tijuana U21
- 2026-09-25T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T23:45:00.000Z · H vs Queretaro U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-28T23:40:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monterrey U21 win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.