Monterrey U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Monterrey U21 and 1.38 for Puebla U21, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Monterrey U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Monterrey U21 win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monterrey U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monterrey U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Monterrey U21 and 1.38 for Puebla U21, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Monterrey U21 win46%

Draw24%

Puebla U21 win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.2%
1–07.8%
1–27.3%
2–06.7%

Recent form

Monterrey U21

2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 4-5 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 1-2 (L)

Puebla U21

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-17T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · Monterrey U21 4-1 Puebla U21 (Liga MX U21)
2025-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Monterrey U21 2-2 Puebla U21 (Liga MX U21)

Liga MX U21 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Toluca U21	12	11	1	0	16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	10	1	1	11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	7	0	5	1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	12	6	2	4	4	20
5	Club America U21	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	6	1	5	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	6	0	6	-4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	6	0	6	-4	18
9	Puebla U21	12	5	2	5	2	17
10	Monterrey U21	11	5	1	5	4	16
11	Cruz Azul U21	12	5	1	6	1	16
12	UNAM Pumas U21	12	5	1	6	0	16
13	Santos Laguna U21	12	5	1	6	-2	16
14	Atlante U21	12	5	0	7	-7	15
15	Atlas U21	12	4	1	7	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	3	1	8	-8	10
17	Pachuca U21	12	3	0	9	-8	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	2	0	9	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Monterrey U21 win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.