Monterrey vs CF Pachuca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Monterrey and 1.53 for CF Pachuca, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives CF Pachuca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

CF Pachuca win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Monterrey home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Pachuca away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Monterrey win27%

Draw26%

CF Pachuca win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–111.3%
1–29.3%
0–28.6%
1–08.0%

Recent form

Monterrey

2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)

CF Pachuca

2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T01:05:00.000Z · Monterrey 1-3 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2025-07-13T23:00:00.000Z · Monterrey 0-3 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2025-04-28T01:30:00.000Z · Monterrey 1-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2025-01-26T03:10:00.000Z · Monterrey 2-3 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2024-07-08T01:06:00.000Z · Monterrey 1-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2024-02-11T03:10:00.000Z · Monterrey 3-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2023-11-05T03:05:00.000Z · Monterrey 2-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2023-03-13T01:05:00.000Z · Monterrey 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2022-10-24T01:06:00.000Z · Monterrey 0-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
2022-10-21T02:06:00.000Z · Monterrey 2-5 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	6	2	2	7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	7	19
5	Leon	11	5	3	3	3	18
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	-1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	4	3	3	1	15
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	2	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	3	3	4	4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	-4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	-5	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	1	1	9	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is CF Pachuca win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.