Cancha El Barrial · Referee P. E. Perez Borja · Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Monterrey W vs América W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.36 expected goals for Monterrey W and 2.62 for América W, a combined total of 4.98. That distribution gives América W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
América W win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
2.36 – 2.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monterrey W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
América W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–35.7%
- 1–25.6%
- 3–25.2%
- 2–15.0%
Recent form
Monterrey W
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z · H vs América W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara W · 3-2 (W)
América W
- 2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs León W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Atlas W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 0-3 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-05-15T03:10:00.000Z · Monterrey W 1-0 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-02-16T01:05:00.000Z · Monterrey W 1-1 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-11-10T01:15:00.000Z · Monterrey W 0-5 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-11-07T01:15:00.000Z · Monterrey W 1-1 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-10-07T02:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 1-2 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-02-11T02:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 2-3 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 2-4 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-05-28T02:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 2-1 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-05-25T02:00:00.000Z · Monterrey W 0-1 América W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is América W win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.