· Analysis updated 21:21 UTC
Montijo vs Guadiana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Montijo and 0.72 for Guadiana, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Montijo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montijo win
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montijo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Montijo and 0.72 for Guadiana, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 65% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Montijo
Guadiana
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Jerez · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Azuaga · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cabeza Buey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Montijo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Montijo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gévora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Quintana | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaraíz | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montijo win, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.